Archive for the 'Scenarios' Category

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Podcasting: Convergence is Upon Us

Where digital convergence pulls in headlining conferences and insatiable hype, the true technology revolutions just happen, ever so quietly. This is what happened with Podcasting as Mapping Strategy says. Read the rest of what he had to say, it is very educational.

I figure Podcasting is another form of the Life Caching trend and when you mention digital convergence, you may as well as add ubiquitous and AI to this massive heap.

I remember the researchers within Corporate Planning were running around and exploding with jargons explaining and describing digital convergence and ubquitous. All their work proved fruitless because none could relate to the planning, designing and marketing of cars and trucks. I’m sure it will happen in the future, but we’ve got a long ways to go.

Link: Mapping Strategy: Podcasting: Convergence is Upon Us.

Increased gas prices and lifestyle-changing tipping points

I’m in a thinking mood.

I read a CNN article reporting increased ridership for many public transit authorities across the nation. With gas prices hovering in and around $2/gallon, this has influenced how drivers commute to and from work, school and home.

With no clear signs of let up anytime soon. Blame it on the continued instability in the Middle East, global terrorism, and the oil-hungry, emerging economies of China and India.

Over an extended period of years with gas prices nowhere where they used to be, I’m thinking a good portion of the US population will change their views on lifestyles that are directly based to driving and/or gas prices. The American “right” to drive a car and take extended roadtrips could be threatened. But what else out there could change? When will automakers fully intervene and endorse alternative fuel resources and collaborate to deliver affordable infrastructure to the consumers? Which lifestyles will adapt and evolve or be replaced?

Sorry for my rambling.

My train of thought is this: by connecting seemingly indirect ‘dots’, it can result in something that can ‘tip’ and radically change human habit. The premise is similar to that of the book, Tipping Point.

Here is an example:
In 2004, Korea opened its French-made high-speed rail bullet trains. The year before the National Assembly passed a law that mandated 5-day work weeks. Companies (with more than 300 employees) put this into practice. These may not sound like a such a big deal, but here is how it can be explosive.

Also in 2004, there was a so-called Well-being trend sweeping the nation, this meant eating healthy and exercising, recreation and travel. When you add the context of 5-day work weeks (that allowed salary men to spend more time with family) and the high-speed railways…

The resulting chain of implications:
1. Families will take advantage of having a true weekend, which allows increased interest and higher adoption rates for leisure and recreation activities, therefore more cash flows into the tourism industry and becomes a growth engine for rural yet scenic areas.
2. People moving away from the capital city for the affordable rural areas. Salary men could commute using the bullet trains. Therefore, lowered stress on public infrastructure because there are less citizens to support. And, minimizes traffic congestion and its product: airborne pollution/smog. Another point: it distributed wealth away from Seoul, to the surrounding suburbs and exburbs. And it could lower Seoul’s outrageous housing prices in the long term.

Across the world people are saving less

More than meets the eye?

Csf654_1“The demographic
profile of Japan or Italy may explain their falling saving rates, but
other rich countries, including America, should have been saving more
as the baby-boomers entered their peak earning years. Instead, people
are putting aside far too little money to pay for their retirement,
relying on unfulfillable promises from bankrupt government pension
plans and absurdly rosy assumptions about capital gains from their
shares and houses. This myopia greatly reduces the pool of capital
available for investment and also worsens existing imbalances in the
global economy.”

“…demographic
trends suggest national saving in rapidly greying countries (Japan,
South Korea, Italy, etc) will continue to fall, further reducing the
prospect of surplus saving to finance the Anglo-Saxon deficits.”

Link: Economist.com | The economics of saving.

Favorite management tools: strategic and scenario planning

Cwb669_3It’s sweet news to hear strategic planning activities are named the most popular management tool in a Management Tools & Trends survey
by Bain & Co. For the past 12 years, companies around the globe are
asked how much they use such tools, and how satisfied they are with
them.

In the survey results for Scenario and Contingency Planning, it received high marks of satisfaction.

Questions: Of the firms using scenario planning, who are they - Americans, British, Japanese…? And of which sectors?

Link: Economist.com | Management and IT.

A VC: The Truth About Online Cannibalization

Fred Wilson of A VC blog explains that by placing content online it will help - not cannibalize - offline businesses. He gives several excellent points to clear up any doubts.

The means for spreading content and how it can be accessed should not be controlled. A manufactured route (PR, ads, book signings, etc.) is overshadowed by the pure spontaneity, scale and reach of social networks powered by blogs and the diffusion theory.

Link: A VC: The Truth About Online Cannibalization.

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